🤚 The Open-Palm Prospectus

SpaceX is preparing to go public in what would be the largest IPO in human history, targeting a valuation of $1.75 trillion and seeking to raise $75 billion on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX. The expected debut date? June 12, 2026 — less than a week from now, for those of you still reading physical calendars.

But here’s the part that should make you sit down, preferably in something leather: SpaceX is no longer pitching itself as a rocket company. The S-1 filing reveals a three-segment empire — Space, Connectivity, and AI — with a claimed total addressable market of $28.5 trillion. That’s not a typo. That’s a number so large it has its own gravitational field.

Peter Diamandis put it best: comparing SpaceX to a rocket company is like valuing Amazon on book sales in 2005. The real play? SpaceX is positioning itself as the Microsoft of space — not a product company, but a platform upon which the entire orbital economy will be built.

👐 The Two-Handed Balance Sheet

Let’s crack open the S-1 like a bottle of champagne at a fundraiser where nobody is entirely sure who’s paying.

The Good:

• Starlink is printing money — $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue, up 49.8% year-over-year, with $4.4 billion in operating income and 10.3 million subscribers across 164 countries. This is the only profitable segment.
• Space operations pulled in $4.1 billion, with over 650 launches completed and 85%+ using reused boosters. The rocket business is a logistics marvel.
• An Anthropic compute deal worth $1.25 billion per month through May 2029 — roughly $45 billion total — monetizing the COLOSSUS AI training infrastructure.

The Concerning:

• Consolidated net loss of $4.94 billion in 2025, driven by the xAI segment hemorrhaging $6.4 billion in operating losses against only $3.2 billion in revenue.
• AI capex hit $12.7 billion last year and is accelerating — Q1 2026 alone saw $7.7 billion, an annualized pace north of $30 billion.
• Cash fell from $24.7 billion to $15.9 billion in a single quarter. That $75 billion raise isn’t a flex — it’s oxygen.
• Starlink’s average revenue per user is quietly collapsing: from $99/month in 2023 to $66/month in Q1 2026. Volume is covering the decline, for now.

And then there’s Elon Musk, who retains 85.1% voting control via dual-class shares while serving as CEO, CTO, and Chairman simultaneously. SpaceX has helpfully classified itself as a “controlled company” and opted out of Nasdaq’s independence requirements, which is the corporate governance equivalent of saying “rules are for people who don’t own the rocket.”

🌿 The Gentle Awakening

The “Microsoft in Space” framing isn’t just marketing — it’s the only way the math works. At $1.75 trillion, you’re not buying a launch provider. You’re not even buying Starlink. You’re buying the thesis that SpaceX will become the platform layer for an orbital economy that doesn’t fully exist yet.

Consider SpaceX’s claimed TAM breakdown: 93% of the $28.5 trillion is attributed to AI-related markets — enterprise applications, infrastructure, consumer AI. The space part of SpaceX? A rounding error in its own pitch deck.

This is the “Microsoft in Space” argument in its purest form: just as Microsoft built the operating system that everyone else’s software ran on, SpaceX wants to build the infrastructure stack — rockets for delivery, Starlink for connectivity, orbital data centers for compute — that everyone else’s space economy runs on. It’s audacious. It’s possibly visionary. It’s also the kind of thing that makes Morningstar set a fair value of $780 billion — less than half the IPO target — and shrug.

👑 The Crown Verdict

The orbital data center plan is the crown jewel of this thesis and simultaneously its most fragile facet. Musk called space-based AI compute a “no brainer” in January 2026. Five months later, the S-1 warns that orbital AI initiatives “involve significant technical complexity and unproven technologies, and may not achieve commercial viability.” This is the corporate filing equivalent of saying “we believe in magic, but our lawyers don’t.”

SpaceX plans to deploy up to 1 million AI compute satellites beginning as early as 2028. If it works, the company becomes the most important infrastructure provider in human history. If it doesn’t, you’ve paid $1.75 trillion for a satellite internet company with a very expensive AI hobby.

The Microsoft analogy is instructive in one final way: Microsoft’s platform dominance took decades to build, through a combination of technical excellence, market timing, and aggressive business practices that regulators eventually noticed. SpaceX is attempting to compress that timeline with physics, capital, and the sheer gravitational force of Elon Musk’s conviction that everything he touches should be worth a trillion dollars.

We’re not saying don’t buy the stock. We’re saying know what you’re buying: a bet on an economy that hasn’t been built yet, from a company that’s losing $5 billion a year building it.

Inspired by SpaceX Is Selling Itself as ‘Microsoft in Space’ | MOONSHOTS by Peter Diamandis.

Your prospectus is showing. Invest wisely.